Thursday, June 24, 2010

A New Internet Meme: Possible "once in a lifetime" solar storm possible in 2013 —

The source of the meme in question is this "scientific" sounding sentence: "Every 22 years the Sun’s magnetic energy cycle peaks while the number of sun spots – or flares – hits a maximum level every 11 years. "

Telegraph.co.uk:

National power grids could overheat and air travel severely disrupted while electronic items, navigation devices and major satellites could stop working after the Sun reaches its maximum power in a few years.

Senior space agency scientists believe the Earth will be hit with unprecedented levels of magnetic energy from solar flares after the Sun wakes “from a deep slumber” sometime around 2013, The Daily Telegraph can disclose.

[. . .]

A “space weather” conference in Washington DC last week, attended by Nasa scientists, policy-makers, researchers and government officials, was told of similar warnings.

While scientists have previously told of the dangers of the storm, Dr Fisher’s comments are the most comprehensive warnings from Nasa to date.

Dr Fisher, 69, said the storm, which will cause the Sun to reach temperatures of more than 10,000 F (5500C), occurred only a few times over a person’s life.

Every 22 years the Sun’s magnetic energy cycle peaks while the number of sun spots – or flares – hits a maximum level every 11 years.

They don't mention here that both these numbers are very rough averages. WIthout knowing that, this article doesn't make any sense at all, since an 11 year cycle would either coincide with a 22 year cycle every time, or would always miss it...

Dr Fisher, a Nasa scientist for 20 years, said these two events would combine in 2013 to produce huge levels of radiation.


That link about Dr. Fisher (from NASA) actually quotes him as saying is this:
"The sun is waking up from a deep slumber, and in the next few years we expect to see much higher levels of solar activity. At the same time, our technological society has developed an unprecedented sensitivity to solar storms. The intersection of these two issues is what we're getting together to discuss."
Looks like someone at the Telegraph was speed reading...

So I googled the sentence "Every 22 years the Sun’s magnetic energy cycle peaks while the number of sun spots – or flares – hits a maximum level every 11 years. "

It does not exist on the NASA site.

It did, however, get 12,500 hits, mostly from sites that publish "scientific news" by and for people who have very little idea what they're talking about. I didn't find any of them older than the Telegraph article, but lots of them are from the same day.

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