Saturday, August 30, 2008

Hurricane Gustav update rom the Oil Drum

Hurricane Gustav, Energy Infrastructure, and Updated Damage Models - Thread #3 (updated 23:46 edt)

Recent track shifts have Gustav consistently hitting near New Orleans, east of the majority of oil and gas rigs; though this could still change in either direction, the models have continued to converge.

There are many resources under the fold (by clicking "there's more" in this post), including details of the latest oil/infra damage estimates from Chuck Watson at KAC/UCF as well as lot of other resources including rig maps, models, google earth maps, and a lot more in the comments. Please help us find things that help convey the energy situation and problems created by this storm. Client-type readers should click on Chuck Watson's links - his long range Katrina forecasts were spot on and he has helped us -a website of volunteers - by volunteering a great deal of time and expertise.

UPDATE! 21:46 EST From Chuck Watson with respect to the LOOP:

Extensive damage and an extended recovery time probably measured in months. The pipelines to shore are probably in a lot of trouble on this trajectory due to scour.

Comment from Matthew Simmons 23:43 8/30:

LOOP is the only facility in the Gulf to unload VLCC tankers which carry over 2 million barrels of crude. They can in theory be "litered" by unloading onto smaller tankers that can make it into the Gulf Coast ports but this is very lenghty timing and the spare capacity of these smaller tankers is slim. We get about 1.2 million b/d of crude imports through Loop. (+/- 10%)

UPDATE: 21:00 EST - Graphic below - shut-in production estimates below fold

Sneak preview of the 11pm runs. This is from LBAR, which has been almost as good as GFDL on track (at 48 hrs, 156mi vs 136mi), and updates much faster.



Damage estimates using LBAR 48 hour run 9pm EST-click twice to enlarge

For all graphics: Rigs/Platforms: Blue: evacuated only; Yellow will require inspection before restart; Red: damage requiring repair.

Refineries: Black: operational impact (partial shutdown) Green: Operational impact (full shutdown)
Red: Damage likely

Ports: standard hurricane flags for wind

We hope those in the path of this behemoth will get out of the way, prepare, and do everything they can to preserve human life. Let's hope this is all a waste of time and that this is not the human tragedy that it looks to be.

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Friday, August 29, 2008

The Legacy of Persian Dualism, Barack and Biden, and US exceptionalism

courtesy of Chris Floyd:

a quite penetrating series of articles by Arthur Silber:

Part I: If the Words Don't Kill You, the Bombs Will

Part II: The Hideous Horror of the Biden Selection

Part III: Follow the Money

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The United States of America: the Next Argentina

Excerpts from a long, long post from MarketOracle by way of Cryptogon:

I have a bad feeling about what's about to happen. The Great Depression is the closest that comes to mind. I, like most, was not alive during the 1930s when it happened. Nonetheless, what once was feared in private is now being discussed in public. It's going to be bad. It's going to make high school seem like fun.

THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA THE NEXT ARGENTINA

This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises by University of Maryland‘s Carmen Reinhart and Harvard's Kenneth Rogoff makes for perfect reading when flying between the US and Argentina.

There is perhaps no better analysis than Reinhart and Rogoff's on the history of sovereign defaults; and, as such, Reinhart and Rogoff's paper was ideal reading material when traveling between the US and Argentina , for the sovereign defaults that happened in the past to Argentina will soon be happening to the US .

But a US default will make Argentina 's debt defaults pale both by comparison and consequence. The US , unlike Argentina , is the world's largest economy, the issuer of the world's reserve currency and the world's largest debtor—and a default by the US on its debt will shake the very foundations of our increasingly fragile global economy.

SOVERIGN DEBT LIQUIDATING AMBITION

The power of ambition is extraordinary. The power of ambition transformed the US from the world's only creditor after WWII into the world's largest debtor in less than fifty years. Wanting to emulate England 's 19 th century empire in the 20 th , the US instead has mirrored England decline in the 20 th century here in the 21 st .

Credit and borrowing fueled America 's ambitions in the 20 th century as it had England 's in the 18 th and 19 th . During the 1980s, to pay for President Reagan expansion of the military, the US quadrupled its national debt in less than a decade by borrowing three trillion dollars during a presidency pledged to balance the budget.

When Reagan took office, US debt totaled one trillion dollars. When Reagan left office, US debt totaled four trillion dollars. Reagan's vaunted slogan of fiscal conservatism was just that—a slogan; and while talk is cheap, the debts now have to be repaid.

Just as the costs of WWI forced England to abandon the gold standard in the early 1900s, post WWII military spending forced the US to suspend the convertibility of the US dollar to gold in 1971; and the consequences, e.g. burgeoning trade deficits and global currency instability, are now putting unsustainable strains on a financial system already in extremis .

Ambition has its price and the bill is now due and owing. The question is: how will the US pay what it owes? In Hyman Minsky's Financial Instability Model, the US is close to “Ponzi status” if not already there since the US is having to roll its debt forward and borrow from others to pay the interest as it can no longer pay down the principle.

In 2006, in an article published by the St Louis Federal Reserve Bank, Professor Laurence Kotlikoff stated the US was “technically bankrupt” as there was no way the US could pay the $65.9 trillion it owed.

Evidently, Professor Kotlikoff was conservative in his estimate or we're going downhill faster than he knew. Just three months ago, on May 28, 2008 Richard W. Fisher, President and CEO of the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank estimated the obligations of the US to be actually $99.2 trillion, 50 % higher than Kotlikoff's figures.

Fisher stated: In the distance, I see a frightful storm brewing in the form of untethered government debt . I choose the words—“frightful storm”—deliberately to avoid hyperbole. Unless we take steps to deal with it, the long-term fiscal situation of the federal government will be unimaginably more devastating to our economic prosperity than the subprime debacle and the recent debauching of credit markets that we are now working so hard to correct.

Fisher should know what the US owes and the danger that sum represents. As President and CEO of the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank, Fisher is a part of the Federal Reserve

System—the very system that has indebted America into perpetuity when its credit-based money forced out gold and silver based money in 1913.

[. . .]

But the real danger of bankers like Lawrence Summers lies not in their untethered intellect but in their cold ambition and selfish greed that sees nations and people as but living fodder to be milked, used and discarded as they and others profit.

In 1991, Summers issued the following memo while serving as Chief Economist at the World Bank:

…developed countries ought to export more pollution to developing countries because these countries would incur the lowest cost from the pollution in terms of lost wages of people made ill or killed by the pollution due to the fact that wages are so low in developing countries…the economic logic behind dumping a load of toxic waste in the lowest wage country is impeccable and we should face up to that.

As the World Bank's Chief Economist, Summer's memo is a chilling reflection of the heartlessness that lies at the core of bankers and banking establishments. The World Bank itself seems to be a favorite watering hole for those of questionable intent.

Robert McNamara, the architect of the Vietnam War was President of the World Bank as was Paul Wolfowitz, the architect of the Iraq War. The current President of the World Bank, Robert Zoellick, is also an ardent supporter of the Iraq War (also on Zoellick's considerable list of “credits” is his service as advisor to Enron, his membership on the Council on Foreign Relations and Trilateral Commission and his attendance at the secretive Bilderberg meetings from 1991 to the present and his role as Senior International Advisor to investment bank Goldman Sachs).

It is no coincidence that those heading the World Bank are closely associated with America 's vast war machine. Bankers have profited from fueling the military ambitions of both England and the US for the past two centuries and continue to do so today.

[. . .]

According to Reinhart and Rogoff, the US is a “default virgin”, sic the US has never missed a debt repayment or rescheduled on at least one occasion. While this is strictly so, the US is nonetheless at the center of the largest default in monetary history.

In the 1970s, the US defaulted on its gold obligations under the Bretton-Woods Agreement. After overspending the greatest hoard of gold in history, 21,775 tons, between 1949 and 1971, the US had 7,000-8,000 tons of gold left and still owed perhaps over 31,000 tons to others.

In 1973, when the US officially refused to convert US dollars held by other countries to gold, it was the biggest monetary default ever. In that one act, as a consequence the entire global monetary system shifted from a gold-based system to a fiat-paper system.

Of the US default on its gold obligations, Professor Antal Fekete wrote in June 2008:

http://www.professorfekete.com/articles%5CAEFItsNotADollarCrisisItsAGoldCrisis.pdf

Thirty-five years ago gold, symbol of permanence, was chased out from the Monetary Garden of Eden , replaced by the floating irredeemable dollar as the pillar of the international monetary system. That's right: a floating pillar. The gold demonetization exercise was a farce. It was designed as a fig leaf to cover up the ugly default of the U.S. government on its gold-redeemable sight obligations to foreigners. The word ‘default' itself was put under taboo even though it punctured big holes in the balance sheet of every central bank of the world, as its dollar-denominated assets sank in value in terms of anything but the dollar itself. These banks were not even allowed to say ‘ouch' as they were looking at the damage to their balance sheets caused by the default. They just had to swallow the loss, obediently and dutifully join the singing of the Hallelujah Chorus of sycophants in Washington praising the irredeemable dollar and the Nirvana of synthetic credit.

[. . .]

In 1976, the Argentine military overthrew the democratically elected Argentine government. The first to recognize the dictatorship was the US . The second was the International Monetary Fund, and within 24 hours of recognizing the soon-to-be most brutal regime in recent history, the IMF arranged a loan to the military junta.

At the time, Argentina 's external debt totaled $7 billion. When the bloody dictatorship ended with the return of democracy six years later, Argentina 's debt totaled $43 billion, a debt owed mainly to US banks.

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The most lucid explanation of Fannie Mae and Freddy Mac I've seen

Another long but revealing post...

Asia Times Online:

Foreign spigot off for US consumers
By Max Fraad Wolff

As US public attention shifts from the Olympics to running mates and the celebrity "news" de jour, the infrastructure beneath your house is termite-infested. Just beneath the nicely painted exterior and behind all the new appliances, doubt is boring through the beams, gnawing at the studs.

Alongside falling prices, rising mortgage rates, stricter credit conditions and general malaise, the structure that supports American home ownership is being condemned by market valuation. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have nose dived and been downgraded toward a smaller future - and these are more important names for your future than Joe, Sam, Kathy, Mitt, Meg ...

Fannie Mae was created in the depths of the Great Depression to decrease foreclosure and increase home ownership. In 1968, it was re-chartered as a public company, removed from within official government agency status. Freddie Mac, since its inception in 1970, has financed 50 million homes.

Fannie and Freddie mission statements make clear, they exist to facilitate, ease and cheapen home ownership. They do this by acting as liaisons between international capital markets and mortgage seekers. They borrow at preferential rates - based on the implicit/explicit - assurance of the US government. Borrowed funds are used to buy mortgages and bundles of mortgages. They provide credit guidelines and purchase mortgage issued by banks. This reduces banks' risk and provides banks with more cash, more quickly to make more loans at lower costs. These firms, then, exist to facilitate, ease and accelerate bank lending for home purchase.

Fannie and Freddie form a central hub between lenders and investors. After they buy American mortgages, they bundle sell and guarantee repayment. This transforms mortgages into investments for banks, corporations and governments all over the world. Your home mortgage, bundled with many other folks' mortgages, is sold, repackaged and assured by Fannie and Freddie. This reduces risk and assures global savings flow in to support American purchases of homes. International investment is the foundation on which our home ownership was built.

Well over US$1 trillion of our mortgages have been sold to foreign investors this way in the recent past. As you sit down and read this, your mortgage may well be "owned" by a firm, individual or central bank thousands of miles away. This relationship is neither healthy nor sustainable in its present form. Rising defaults, falling dollars and the sheer size of past borrowing are turning people off to American mortgages. The foundation below our houses is shifting.


What we are witnessing is the breakdown of the link between middle-class America and the global financial markets it has over-tapped across the last several decades. Fannie and Freddie were the support infrastructure connecting houses to capital market access. They have been caught with weak financials, swollen balance sheets and escalating default, just like the home owners they assist. The size of their retained mortgage portfolios is truly gigantic.

The extent of the firms' guarantee commitments is global in scope. Sixty-six global central banks buy loans bundled and or backed with Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae involvement. As of June 30, 2007 foreign entities and individuals held over $1.4 trillion in securities of US agencies such as Freddie and Fannie.

Fannie Mae's June 2008 statement declares a gross mortgage portfolio of $750 billion and guarantees of mortgage backed securities and loans of $2.6 trillion. Freddie Mac's June statement details a retained portfolio balance of $792 billion and a total mortgage portfolio balance of $2.2 trillion. These two giants have retained interest in over $1.5 trillion and guaranteed over $4.5 trillion in mortgages, mortgage backed securities and loans. There are $11 trillion in outstanding mortgage liabilities in the US.


The US housing market continues to melt down with dire consequence. In the seven years from 2001 through late 2007, household real estate value increased by $8.873 trillion to $22.495 trillion. It has since fallen by $426 billion. Many claim we are at or a near a bottom. These claims should be viewed with extreme weariness. The housing downturn is not over and it will take a while after it is over to judge the damage.

The search for parallels with today yields little. The closest one finds is the interesting decline in home ownership across the period 1905-1920 followed by a surging rise across the '20s and then collapse across the 1930s. Fannie was born of this collapse, the ideology of The New Deal and sense that government-driven market interventions could broaden home ownership in America. This was a success. Home ownership did grow spectacularly across the period from 1938-2007. It is falling now as Fannie and Freddie flounder.

In 1940, US home ownership stood just below 44%. At the start of 2008 68% of Americans owned their home. Over the decades, Fannie and Freddie changed, middle-class America changed and the global financial realm underwent several revolutions. The last and most transformative revolution involved the rise of securitization and integration of global financial markets.

Securitization involves transforming assets and promises of future payment into financial products for sale to investors. International financial integration tears down the walls between national banking systems and allows savings, loans and payments to be gathered and transferred across international boundaries.

A world of wealth poured into US real estate through securitization and deregulation. This flow was channeled and molded by the actions of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The decline of these firms will have dramatic and long-lasting implications for home mortgage finance. This will impact the price of American homes, the cost and ease of borrowing for home ownership.

Housing prices have further to fall and global savings will likely never be lent to American consumers at recent percentage levels. Across the past few years America has been borrowing over 50% of the world's internationally available savings. The diminishing role of Fannie and Freddie will impact more people, for far longer than presidential running-mate selections. Policy makers and managements in Fannie and Freddie are stuck. Today's consumer strength, their missions and international financial realities no longer align.

We face a housing finance future different from the recent past. Fannie and Freddie will not be able to function in the same way, or to the same extent. The debates about and plans for these firms will touch millions of families through housing prices, finance terms and cost. Fannie and Freddie are much more important than Joe, Sam, Kathy, Mitt, Meg ...

Max Fraad Wolff is a doctoral candidate in economics at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst, and editor of the website GlobalMacroScope.

(Copyright 2008 Max Fraad Wolff.)

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Thursday, August 28, 2008

The Most Lucid Explanation I've Ever Read of How the US Economy Works

This is so to the point, so penetratingly wise, I'm copying the whole thing.

Yes, it's long.

via a Tiny Revolution:

The market mindfuck

By The Scanner

“I believe that America's free market has been the engine of America's great progress. It's created a prosperity that is the envy of the world. It's led to a standard of living unmatched in history. And it has provided great rewards to the innovators and risk-takers who have made America a beacon for science, and technology, and discovery…We are all in this together. From CEOs to shareholders, from financiers to factory workers, we all have a stake in each other's success because the more Americans prosper, the more America prospers.”

— Barack Obama, New York, NY, September 17, 2007

Mark Thoma is an economics professor who runs the informative blog Economist’s View. Politically, he’s your standard-issue Democrat and he recently treated us to a standard-issue vision of economics as seen by Democrats:

This article by David Leonhardt describes Barack Obama's view of economic policy, and it is very similar to my own. Most of the time, it is best to leave markets alone, to let them work without intervention, and that should be our starting point. But markets fail, and part of the disagreement with those holding more conservative views is over how often markets fail, whether they can easily self-correct when there are problems, and how effective the government is at fixing problems when they exist.

Thoma is a victim of what is clinically termed the market mindfuck – a malady believed to affect over 90% of Democratic politicians. Now, in his academic work, Professor Thoma is a specialist in monetary economics and Fed policy, and it’s fair to say that like most elected Democrats he’s an admirer of the institution in general (and of Ben Bernanke’s policies in particular). So to provide some context for the market mindfuck, let’s briefly review what the Fed does.

Pursuant to the 1913 Federal Reserve Act and subsequent amendments, the government is effectively given an absolute monopoly on private bank reserves. A committee of government planning bureaucrats in Washington, known as the F.O.M.C., dictates the nationwide price of these reserves and feeds instructions to a bureaucratic department in New York. Based on these instructions, the department carries out constant intervention in the market -- literally on a minute-by-minute, hour-by-hour basis -- to control the quantity of bank reserves and ensure that the government-mandated price target is enforced at all times.

How do the government planners know what price to set? Being technically skilled state functionaries, they have developed a complex analytical apparatus that allows them to engineer just the right the price. It involves such things as calculating “output-gap estimates,” constructing “modified Taylor rules” and compiling “physical-input material balances” (whoops! sorry, that last one was Gosplan).

The health of the entire economy depends on this process. If the planning intelligentsia does its job well, the nation will be prosperous, demonstrating once again – to the mindfucked – that “most of the time it is best to leave markets alone” and “let them work without intervention” (though there is room to debate “how often” we will be forced, reluctantly, to permit exceptions to the golden rule).


* * *

The market mindfuck thus reveals itself as a formidable tool of ideological control. In accordance with the ancient principle of heads-I-win-tails-you-lose, it works as follows: If you advocate Policy A -- in which the government involves itself in economic decision-making to advance the perceived self-interest of the ruling class -- you will receive the warm approbation of the sages: What a sophisticated proposal; what a pragmatic approach. The Federal Reserve Act, as it happens, was a compromise between a reactionary plutocrat, an apologist for the Belgian rape of the Congo who called the income tax “communistic” (Sen. Nelson Aldrich of Rhode Island), and a bloodthirsty Southern white supremacist for whom no law “is so obnoxious that I would be willing to submit its fate to 146,000 ignorant Negro voters” (Rep. Carter Glass of Virginia).

On the other hand, if you advocate Policy B, in which the government involves itself in economic decision-making to benefit the working class, you will be summoned in grave tones before a tribunal of the very best men, who are charged with the duty of upholding the sacred doctrine – the doctrine that “most of the time, it is best to leave markets alone, to let them work without intervention, and that should be our starting point.”

Swiftly you will see the ideological enforcers – journalists, economists, think tankers, politicians -- gather around you with looks of pity and concern on their faces. Somewhere in the room you will hear the sound of a door being bolted from the inside. Don’t be afraid, they’ll say in soothing tones. You’re among friends here. Believe us, we understand your feelings. But we’re concerned that you’ve lost sight of some fundamental truths. We want to help you, but first we need to hear you say, in your own words, that “most of the time it is best to leave markets alone, to let them work without intervention, and that should be our starting point.” You can say that, can’t you? Just say the words.

You feel the icy stare of the faceless men arrayed against you. With panic rising in your chest, your mind flashes wildly to the New York Fed trading desk where at this very moment the national price of bank reserves is being fixed by people who look exactly like these men. You catch sight of one of your tormentors in a corner of the room, a former IMF official holding a gleaming copy of the Economist with a pair of electrical pliers folded inside. You want to shout no, but gripped by terror you collapse and crumple in your chair. In a slow, mechanical drone, you mouth the words: “It is best to leave markets alone, to let them work without intervention; that should be our starting point.” Your statement is taken down by a clerk and sent off to the Washington Post for filing. Satisfied, the men rise and move toward the door. The IMF staffer gazes at you with a look of benevolent reflection. (“You were thinking of the F.O.M.C., weren’t you?” After a moment’s hesitation, you nod your head and begin to sob. An almost tender smile comes over his face. “You are no metaphysician, Winston,” he says paternally.)


* * *

Consider the New York Times Magazine article by David Leonhardt that Thoma points to. It begins its discussion of Obama’s economic policy by recalling the hoary “battle of the Bobs” of the 1990’s:

On one side was Clinton’s labor secretary and longtime friend, Bob Reich, who argued that the government should invest in roads, bridges, worker training and the like to stimulate the economy and help the middle class. On the other side was Bob Rubin, a former Goldman Sachs executive turned White House aide, who favored reducing the deficit to soothe the bond market, bring down interest rates and get the economy moving again. Clinton cast his lot with Rubin, and to this day the first question about any Democrat’s economic outlook is often where his heart lies -- with Reich or Rubin, the left or the center, the government or the market.

Here is the market mindfuck in all its gruesome fullness. Robert Rubin wanted the government to redirect income from taxpayers to bondholders. Therefore, he was in favor of “the market.” Robert Reich wanted the government to redirect income from bondholders to road-builders. Therefore, he was in favor of “the government.” Have you got the hang of this? Now try your hand at this stumper: In 2001, Alan Greenspan called for reversing the Rubin budget-surplus policy, announcing that we should now cut taxes for the rich – i.e., redistribute income from bondholders back to taxpayers. Okay. Was Alan Greenspan for “the government” or for “the market,” according to David Leonhardt? (No peeking!)

Or let’s take a different variation of the mindfuck, from the same article. Leonhardt says the “best example” of Obama’s embrace of the free market is his climate policy. Obama supports a cap-and-trade system to cut greenhouse-gas emissions. While many Congressional cap-and-trade bills call for giving away allotments of pollution credits to power companies, an option Leonhardt describes as a form of corporate welfare, Obama wants to auction the credits off. This is supposed to result in a more efficient allocation of credits as well as more money for the treasury. By supporting auctions, Leonhardt says, Obama has “moved the debate toward a more pro-market solution.”

Now, I don’t know much more about this debate than I read in the article; if you take at face value the reporter’s explanation of the issue, the auctions plan appears as the better of the two ideas. But the terminology is incoherent: Obama wants the government to invent a new commodity and create a new market that didn’t exist before, tradable pollution credits; maintain a monopoly on the production of the credits; unilaterally determine the aggregate supply of credits; and then forbid companies by law from emitting greenhouse gasses in excess of their holdings of credits. This is the solution that follows from the dictum that the government usually shouldn’t interfere?

Let’s try to follow the logic. The explanation, presumably, is that in the giveaway plan, the government would determine not only the total number of credits but also the initial allocation of credits among companies; whereas in the auction plan, “the market” decides the initial allocation. But wait! What would be the point of having the government decide how credits are to be allocated among companies anyway, except as a corporate giveaway? Only the total number of credits affects the environment, not their distribution. If there were some pressing environmental reason why we would want to control the allocation of credits, then the “pro-market” auction solution would be a total failure; the distribution of credits would end up being determined by the relative economic value of credits to each firm rather than by whatever environmental criteria we were trying to enforce.

Surely it can’t be the mere existence of an auction that makes the plan “pro-market.” (After all, wasn’t it “pro-government” Bob Reich who wanted to auction off Treasury bonds -- i.e., run a deficit -- to build roads that would probably get built through competitive bidding?) The pollution-credit giveaway plan is neither more nor less “pro-market” than the auction plan. In both cases, the government creates the market. It’s just that in one version, the market is apparently created so as to benefit polluters and in the other one it isn’t. It is hard to resist the conclusion that the auction plan is presented as “pro-market” solely because – at least in this presentation – it’s the better of the two plans.

* * *

The market mindfuck is all the more insidious because the victim, usually a hapless Democrat, is complicit in his own mindfucking. By accepting the premise of the mindfuck, the victim automatically places his own views – indeed, precisely those views which distinguish him from his right-wing opponent -- under a cloud of probationary suspicion. This suspicion can only be dispelled after a rigorous examination process in which the judge and jury are the very ideological enforcers who insisted on the slanted premise in the first place. When the verdict arrives, the victim’s ideas may turn out to be lamentably “anti-market” or intelligently “pragmatic.” Such verdicts closely correlate with cui bono.

There is only one cure for the mindfuck: The patient must refuse to recite the catechism. When enjoined by his ideological enforcers, a strictly rejectionist posture must be assumed: “No, I’m sorry. Most of the time the government should not refrain from intervening in the market. The market is not a better allocator of resources than the government. Government policies create markets. That should be our starting point. Once we all agree on that, then we can debate the real question: Who should benefit from those policies, and how?”

Judging from the Obama quote at the head of this post, we may not see a cure in our lifetime.

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Wednesday, August 27, 2008

Mr. Schwarz finds fault with Joe Biden

a Tiny Revolution:

August 27, 2008

BREAKING: New Biden Plagiarism Scandal!!! MUST CREDIT TINY REVOLUTION!!!

Accusations that Joe Biden was guilty of plagiarism during his 1988 presidential campaign seem to be mostly bogus.

However, I've uncovered recent, genuine plagiarism by Biden, during his 2007 Meet the Press appearance to announce his 2008 run for president.

What did his plagiarize? All of Dick Cheney's most egregious lies about Iraq and WMD:

MR. RUSSERT: I want to go back to 2002, because it’s important as to what people were saying then and what the American people were hearing. Here’s Joe Biden about Saddam Hussein: “He’s a long term threat and a short term threat to our national security.”

“We have no choice but to eliminate the threat. This is a guy who is an extreme danger to the world.”

“He must be dislodged from his weapons or dislodged from power.” You were emphatic about that.

SEN. BIDEN: That’s right, and I was correct about that. He must be, in fact—and remember the weapons we were talking about. I also said on your show, that’s part of what I said, but not all of what I meant. What I also said on your show at the time was that I did not think he had weaponized his material, but he did have. When, when the inspectors left after Saddam kicked them out, there was a cataloguing at the United Nations saying he had X tons of, X amount of, and they listed the various materials he had. The big issue, remember, on this show we talked about, was whether he had weaponized them. Remember you asked me about those flights that were taking place in southern Iraq, where—were they spraying anthrax? And, you know, what would happen? And, you know, so on and so forth. And I pointed out to you that they had not developed that capacity at all. But he did have these stockpiles everywhere.

MR. RUSSERT: Where are they?

SEN. BIDEN: Well, the point is, it turned out they didn’t, but everyone in the world thought he had them. The weapons inspectors said he had them. He catalogued—they catalogued them. This was not some, some Cheney, you know, pipe dream. This was, in fact, catalogued. They looked at them and catalogued. What he did with them, who knows? The real mystery is, if he, if he didn’t have any of them left, why didn’t he say so? Well, a lot of people say if he had said that, he would’ve, you know, emboldened Iran and so on and so forth...

Now, the rules of the road either mean something or they don’t. The international community says “We’re going to enforce the sanctions we placed” or not...

So I did not believe he had weaponized his materials. But he did have material that, in fact, could theoretically be weaponized. And to let it sit there at the time, I wanted the inspectors back in to force him that position of having to give it up.

So many lies. Just keeping track of them is exhausting.

1. "When the inspectors left after Saddam kicked them out..."

The UN weapons inspectors were withdrawn at the direct request of the US so that the US could bomb Iraq in Operation Desert Fox.

2. "[T]here was a cataloguing at the United Nations saying he had X tons of, X amount of, and they listed the various materials he had...he did have these stockpiles everywhere."

The UN never said Iraq still possessed WMD. Biden is talking about documents prepared by the UN about the theoretical maximum amount of biological and chemical weapons Iraq could have produced before the Gulf War in 1991.

For instance, Iraq only admitted in 1995 that they had an offensive biological weapons program. Iraq also claimed they'd destroyed all the relevant material in 1991, and provided some though not conclusive evidence for this. The UN discovered that they'd imported a certain amount of growth media, and calculated how much anthrax they could have produced if all of the growth media had been used for anthrax at maximum efficiency.

Of course, humans never do anything at maximum efficiency. And there was evidence Iraq indeed had everything destroyed in 1991, and no evidence it hadn't. And even if Iraq hadn't destroyed it, it would have remained dangerous for only a few years after 1991, so there would have been no reason whatsoever for Iraq to keep it.

Again: the UN never said what Biden claims it did.

3. "[E]veryone in the world thought he had them. The weapons inspectors said he had them."

"Everyone in the world" thought Iraq had WMD in the same sense "everyone in the world" thought Joe Biden should run for president in 2008—ie, everyone Joe Biden spoke to. The rest of humanity, no.

Just for instance, the head of the CIA's WMD section privately believed that Iraq had "not much, if anything."

And here's a story from October, 2002:

With a tense Mr Blair alongside him at his dacha near Moscow, the Russian president took the unusual step of citing this week's sceptical CIA report on the Iraqi military threat to assert: "Fears are one thing, hard facts are another"...

After confirming his foreign ministry's assessment that No 10's Iraqi dossier "could be seen as a propagandistic step" to sway public opinion, he made it plain.

"Russia does not have in its possession any trustworthy data that supports the existence of nuclear weapons or any weapons of mass destruction in Iraq and we have not received any such information from our partners as yet. This fact has also been supported by the information sent by the CIA to the US Congress."...

"There may be a difference of perspective about weapons of mass destruction, there is one certain way to find out and that is to let the inspectors back in to do their job. That is the key point on which we are both agreed," Mr Blair said.

So Blair explicitly stated Russia didn't agree with the US and UK claims, but everyone agreed the inspectors should return. Later this morphed into "everyone in the world" believing Iraq had WMD.

There's a lot more to say about this tiny subject; if fact, you could write a long article about it. Perhaps one day I will, if someone's ever willing to pay me.

And just to repeat myself: "The weapons inspectors" never said "he had them."

4. "What he did with them, who knows?"

"What he did with them" is explained in excruciating detail in a 1000-page long CIA report. "What he did with them" turned out to be exactly what Iraq had been claiming since 1995.

The CIA report, which is available to anyone with an internet connection, came out three years before Joe Biden said this on TV. The US government spent $1 billion on it.

5. " [I]f he, if he didn’t have any of them left, why didn’t he say so?"

Iraq screamed at the top of its lungs for twelve years that it didn't have "any of them left." Iraqi officials said it on American TV over and over again throughout the nineties and in many reports submitted to the UN. They said it again in the 10,000-page report Iraq submitted in December, 2002 to the UN. Saddam Hussein said Iraq had nothing in an interview on 60 Minutes in February, 2003, and then again in Arabic on Iraqi national TV.

In fairness to Biden, however, the Iraqi government did refuse to send someone to the moon to say it there.

6. "Now, the rules of the road either mean something or they don’t. The international community says 'We’re going to enforce the sanctions we placed' or not."

The core of the Iraq-WMD issue was that the US had announced, over and over and over again, that the "rules of the road" didn't mean anything. According to the relevant UN resolutions, the sanctions imposed before the Gulf War in 1991 would remain in place until Iraq had disarmed. However, the George H.W. administration (including Robert Gates, then national security advisor) immediately announced the US would never allow the sanctions to be lifted as long as Saddam was in power. The Clinton administration repeatedly said the same thing.

This caused problems from the Gulf War onward, because our policy was directly at odds with international law, and guaranteed Iraq would have no incentive to cooperative with inspections.

7. "But he did have material that, in fact, could theoretically be weaponized."

He did not have material that, in fact, could theoretically be weaponized.

IN CONCLUSION: These are not the type of higher quality lies I've long hoped an Obama presidency would give America.

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Cindy has some stern words for Ms. Pelosi

Aug 26, 2008 5:24 PM

The "Experience of Being Wrong"
Cindy Sheehan


I did not watch Ms. Pelosi's speech at the DNC. I was actually giving a speech of my own in another part of Denver, but I have read the transcript of Ms. Pelosi's remarks and I have also read the criticisms of this speech on all of the Democratic blogs. Ms. Pelosi did not get high marks, to say the least. I have read some things I cannot repeat, but criticisms of "wooden," "boring," "uninspired," and "hypocritical," are some comments coming from committed and rabid Democrats. It does seem pretty hypocritical when such a public failure can claim that McCain has the "experience of being wrong.
"

With Congress at a 9% approval rating, it is amazing to me that Ms. Pelosi can stand in front of anyone and claim "success" and claim that her leadership has taken this nation on a better path. Our economy is crashing; hundreds of thousands of people have lost their homes despite the $300.00 "stimulus" check Ms. Pelosi sent them. Some Americans are being forced to choose whether to buy gas or food, despite the miniscule hike in the federal minimum wage, which affected a very small percentage of the population since most states already had minimum wages that exceeded the federal minimum wage. A true progressive "change" in that direction would be mandating a living wage, which differs from state/state and city/city; but based on the cost of living. It's easier to push people of color or poor people out of cities like San Francisco by increasing the cost of living, while not mandating a living wage.


Some other of Ms.
Pelosi's "accomplishments" that she touted in her speech were:

Keeping toxic toys out of the hands of children.


(The toys that were put into our children's hands by the "free" trade agreements she supports and the outsourcing of jobs that pay slave wages to countries that make our consumer goods and encourage cutting back costs so we can go to Wal-mart and get "low, low" prices).


We passed legislation to keep hard working American families in their homes

(According to Reality Trak, 1 out of every 194 homes received foreclosure notices in the first quarter of this year and Congress was more interested in bailing out Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae and predatory lenders than keeping "American Families" in their homes.
)

And, we enacted a new G.I. Bill to thank our veterans from the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan by sending them to college.


(Ms. Pelosi did not mention in her speech that her congress has funded the war crimes in Iraq and Afghanistan to the tune of over 400 billion dollars and since she became Speaker, over 1200 of our troops have been killed unnecessarily and hundreds of Iraqis/Afghans have been murdered or displaced from their homes. Ms. Pelosi should not be "thanking" our veterans, she should be apologizing to them for continuing to send them off to fight a war that has physically, mentally, or emotionally wounded tens of thousands of them for no reason at all).


Ms. Pelosi even said that Iraq was: "a catastrophic mistake that has cost thousands of lives of our men and women in uniform and trillions of dollars, as well as has weakened our standing in the world and our capability to protect the American people, Barack Obama is right and John McCain is wrong. Very, very wrong." Well, if John McCain has been wrong and the occupation of Iraq (she says nothing about Afghanistan, and, in fact, she supports the Obama plan of redeploying troops from Iraq to Afghanistan to fight the "real war on terror"), then Nancy Pelosi has also been "very, very wrong." One doesn't pour funds to the tune of "trillions" of dollars into a "catastrophic mistake.
"

Borrowing the rhetoric of the right, Ms. Pelosi wants to honor our troops that have made America the "Land of the free and the home of the brave." Collaborating with the Bush regime to foist upon us a "Prevention of violent radicalism and homegrown terrorism law" and working with the City of Denver and the State of Colorado and Homeland "Security" to turn Denver into a fascist police state, would have made a person of conscience choke on those words. I certainly know that my son did not join the US Military and die in a "catastrophic mistake" to turn this nation into one that is looking more like a bi-partisan repressive despotic dictatorship every day. I have a radical idea for Ms. Pelosi! How about she honors our troops by obeying her sworn oath to "uphold and defend the constitution from all enemies foreign and domestic," the same oath our troops take.


Ms. Pelosi is famous for taking our constitution "off the table" and will go down in infamy as the Vichy-enabler of the Bush regime and along with her beloved "party" will be known as the party that killed the 4th amendment to the Bill of Rights (with her support of warrantless spying on Americans and immunity from the felonious breaking of the FISA laws) and the 8th amendment as the sanctioners of torture.


During her speech, Ms. Pelosi is giving evidence that her leadership will also further dissolve the separation between church and state that has accelerated during the Bush "catastrophic mistake" of a Presidency. She assured the convention goers and lapdog media that the Democratic path is one to the Christian heaven: "It is the path that renews our democracy by bringing us together as one nation under God." Whose god? Bush's god? Obama's god? Pelosi's god? Osama's god? Olmert's god? The god of the "two" party system: mammon? The very words, "God," or "religion" do not belong anywhere near public political discourse. Obviously, not everyone worships the same god, or any god, or gods. We must end the rhetoric of "holy wars" and remember that we do not elect a Pope of America, but a President. I also have another question...how is democracy "renewed" by forcing us together as a "nation under God?" This was not only an un-American thing to say, but the rhetoric is as empty as the treasury of the USA.


The "successes" of Pelosi's leadership look an awful lot like failures when we know that she mostly capitulated to the Bush regime and when her failures have been so catastrophically tragic.


In September, Ms. Pelosi, will have a few weeks left of her leadership position when she will go back to lead a congress that has that abysmal approval rating and has passed the least amount of legislation in the last 20 years. Congress will take up business for about three weeks in September and a good start will be to arrest Karl Rove on the first day for ignoring a congressional subpoena. On day two, begin to roll back the executive branch excesses of the last eight years and reclaim the separation of powers that were ensured by the founders before the next president takes over and takes the scepter of an empire and not the mantle of public service as only the "first of equals.
"

There's nothing more important for her to do.

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Diebold, er, Premier, admits it's voting machines don't work

Even Lou Dobbs knows it.





(via Brad Blog)

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Tuesday, August 26, 2008

A new coal burning power plant - in the Gulf

Arabian Business.Com via the Cryptogon:
The obvious irony is that the Gulf is blessed with a wealth of natural resources. It holds about 30 percent of global oil reserves and around 8 percent of gas reserves - two of the main ingredients for generating electricity.

However the region is suffering from a shortage of one of these components, gas, as high oil prices encourage oil-producing nations to rely heavily on natural gas for domestic consumption, reserving more oil for export.

Samuel Ciszuk, a Middle East energy analyst for Global Insight, believes that in the drive to diversify their economies away from oil dependency, GCC countries have underestimated the amount of gas they require for power generation.

"The Gulf has been suffering from power problems for a couple of summers, especially in peak demand periods, and this goes back to the gas crunch where a lot of countries are failing to produce enough gas to meet growing power needs," he says.

"The main problem is that everything is built to work on gas power," he continues. "GCC countries have converted old oil plants to gas so they are completely reliant on gas in Saudi Arabia, UAE and Kuwait, but then they have failed to secure a sufficient amount of gas. There could be major problems during peak demand.

"In Kuwait it is clear that the situation is hurting growth, and in Saudi Arabia this will be one of the tests of its economic future," he adds. "Whether it will be able to source its energy will be a big question."

[. . .]

To address the long-term supply issue, some Gulf states including the UAE are considering building nuclear power stations. However, the government does not expect its first atomic power plant to be completed before 2016.

Faced by serious delays in the connection of residential and commercial property projects to the power grid, Ajman has signed a $2bn deal with Malaysian power producer MMC to build the Gulf's first coal-fired power station. It will generate one gigawatt of electricity from early 2012.

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Bring Back '68, read the signs...

Here's some delightful footage of what appears to be a patriotic display of police-public community appreciaton. I believe tha aim here was to make sure a peaceful protest turned ugly. But then, I wasn't there. These folks were. Notice every other person in the crowd has a camera. Some things change for the better...

This is from American News Project, via Flyingcockflyer, via Cindy Sheehan (who, on her very first day there, interrupted a nice young man in the midst of bugging her phone.)

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Tuesday, August 19, 2008

Shat Agassi wants to make gasoline-powered cars obsolete

23 pages but worth reading—

Wired by way of Truthout:

photo
Shai Agassi has proposed a grand plan to

reinvent the world's automobile.

(Photo: Peter DaSilva / The New York Times)

...At a larger meeting a few weeks later, one of Agassi's lieutenants made the case to dozens of Hawaii's business and political leaders. Like others, Dave Rolf was intrigued. He represents the state's auto dealers, a powerful lobby in the state capitol that's against anything that cuts into car dealer profits. The meeting lasted eight hours, and Rolf left stunned. Not only was this going to happen, he decided, it needed to happen, and Hawaii was the perfect place. He fired off a letter to GM's regional head in California urging the carmaker to pay attention. The auto industry needed to be part of this from the get-go. They needed to be making electric cars. "This is kind of a world-changer," Rolf says.

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Monday, August 18, 2008

A most uncommon experience

Yesterday morning I had an odd experience. Odd may be an understatement.

I was doing what virtually every living being does, only as one of a group of theoretically civilized humans, our house has a special room and even device to sit upon while doing it.

My view to the left was of another appliance which we have, this one for bathing. A bath tub. Gazing into it I saw what little there was to see in it.

Along with two tiny hairs and a couple of buckets we use to catch excess water there was something walking around—a tiny insect, which I thought was a gnat, but after some google exploration I see may have been a sewer fly. This insect was walking what seemed to be a random line, a few moments in one direction, a few moments in another, and then occasionally flying three or four inches, and then repeating the sequence. Mostly it walked around. It seemed incapable of leaving the bathtub, it's walking taking it back where it had been, and it's flying being unable to surmount the dizzying height of the walls of the bathtub, they being a good two feet or so up. I'd never seen such a display in the bathtub before, and I was curious as to how it would end.

As I was closely watching this insect, it chanced to approach one of the hairs in the tub, a hair about an inch long, separated from it's nearest neighbor, another small hair, by about eight inches, a distance about equal to the longest flight I'd witnessed by the tiny fly. The fly walked around, approached, but didn't reach the hair. Instead it vanished.

My eyes widened in astonishment. I scanned the tub. No fly. No insect flying. No insect walking. No insect running. No insect.

This was a black, small but very visible fly, in a stark white tub, with nothing else but two hairs within several feet. I strove to consider the logical possibilities. In all my previous experience, physical objects in this world, whether mountains or flies, do not simply disappear.

Had I blacked out? Not that I'm aware of. Daydreamed long enough for the fly to escape my field of view? But I was intently watching the fly. Despite the fact that in the minute or two I'd watched it the fly had not strayed from roughly a area about the size of a frisbee, I looked around. I lifted up the buckets and checked them inside and out. I looked around the bathroom. No tiny fly.

Only the memory of this little insect, walking along, approaching a hair, and vanishing. One moment, it was there. The next, it was not.

I checked my cell phone for the time. 10:34am, August 16, 2008.

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Saturday, August 16, 2008

Jerry Brown wants California to show the way to energy efficiency

Legalnewswire.com:


Brown calls California a model of energy efficiency; Calls for R&D tax breaks
Jerry Brown (D)
SACRAMENTO, Calif. (Legal Newsline)--California Attorney General Jerry Brown told Legal Newsline he believes America needs an efficiency expert.

In a wide-ranging interview Friday, Brown said the United States must reduce its dependency on foreign oil, which would save billions of dollars through increasing energy efficiencies.

"There is massive gain to be realized from efficiency," Brown said in between bites of a lunchtime sandwich on Friday, "but the federal government has been asleep. California has proven you can save billions of dollars. And it's criminal the way the federal government has ignored its leadership in this area."

Earlier this week, Brown took a challenge from the editors of The Wall Street Journal, writing a piece on how he would invest $10 billion in the next four years to save the country.

Brown, a Democrat, touted the need to prioritize greater efficiency, from the cars we drive to the new buildings we construct, to the money we invest in research and development.

Brown wrote he would spend the $10 billion and "invest it in curbing our energy appetite through efficiency programs and incentives" that would in effect reduce our dependency on oil, gas and coal.

Brown said the article was more than just an exercise, but an essential need for the future.

"We are talking about new kinds of engines and designs on everything from refrigerators to automobiles," Brown told LNL. "We want to kick-start technology so we can get more efficient."

The model of success for the county, Brown said, is California, where the state has kept electrical consumption flat for the past quarter of a century and where plans to increase energy efficiency are a fabric of future planning.

In April, Brown sent a letter to the California Public Utilities Commission commenting on its plans to craft a statewide energy efficiency program for 2009-2020. Brown offered a number of programs that could increase energy savings, including incentives for lighter-colored roofs, energy reduction where the demand is highest, on-bill financing programs that promote improvements to current buildings, grants for retro-commissions of existing buildings and discount cards for energy efficient appliances.

Brown said the nation simply must catch up to the gains made by California, and must include a far greater investment in research and development.

"I want the R&D to be equal to the problem," Brown said. "We need to renew the tax credits and expand those programs we have in place. Increase the efficiency of automobiles much more quickly."

Alternative energy development has its place, Brown said, but the priority should be efficiency.

"The more humble opportunity is efficiency where you can get more savings," Brown said. "We need to reduce foreign oil dependency right now."

As for the cost of these programs, Brown said it's a matter of re-allocating resources.

"How do we afford to buy the foreign oil?" he asked rhetorically. "The fact is we can't afford not to. That is why efficiencies are critical."

He said the federal government has failed to address these problems, choosing instead to ignore them. He added it is time for the country as a whole to start listening more. When asked how much stock he put into Peak Oil theories - a belief that the world has reached the peak of its oil production and will soon face severe shortages - Brown said it's better to think ahead than remain skeptical.

"(Peak Oil) is certainly a risk," Brown said. "If you totally ignore it you'll be caught with your pants down it will be pretty bad. So you have to pay attention. Oil is going to get harder to get and more expensive. That's a fact."

On a lawsuit Brown has threatened to file against Nestle over its plans to build a water production plant in the remote mountain town of McCloud at the base of Mount Shasta in Northern California, Brown said the project doesn't make sense.

For the project, Nestle, the nation's largest bottled water company, plans to draw nearly half a billion gallons of water from the McCloud River each year. Brown said this type of waste is an example of the types of changes Americans must embrace.

"We take our pristine waters and cart them off to Maine or someplace," Brown said. "It's like carrying coal to Newcastle, or ice to Alaska. It represents a level of waste that, at least, ought to be acknowledged. Hopefully, consumers will find more efficient ways to hydrate."

Brown's push for energy efficiency dates back to his earliest years in public office, when he first served as California's governor in the late 1970s to the early 1980s.

As Oakland's mayor, Brown sought to reduce the city's power consumption by 10 percent. In his tenure as attorney general he has brought several lawsuits aimed at forcing compliance with the state's goal to drastically reduce emissions, lower greenhouse gasses and increase energy efficiency.

"America must take the lead in dealing with global energy and climate challenges," Brown wrote in his Wall Street Journal piece, "and at the same time vastly strengthen its own economy and security."

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"President Bush, Why don't you shut up?"

We've finally arrived at a place in history when the New York Times's lead story starts off with a pack of propaganda disguised as news...
President Bush sent American troops to Georgia on Wednesday to oversee a “vigorous and ongoing” humanitarian mission, in a direct challenge to Russia’s display of military dominance over the region. His action came after Russian soldiers moved into two strategic Georgian cities in what he and Georgian officials called a violation of the cease-fire Russia agreed to earlier in the day.

Mr. Bush demanded that Russia abide by the cease-fire and withdraw its forces or risk its place in “the diplomatic, political, economic and security structures of the 21st century.” It was his strongest warning yet of potential retaliation against Russia over the conflict.

The decision to send the American military, even on a humanitarian mission, deepened the United States’ commitment to Georgia and America’s allies in the former Soviet sphere, just as Russia has been determined to reassert its control in the area.

...whereas, by contrast, a column in Pravda sounds rational, if a bit over the top...

Bush: Why don’t you shut up?
Bush: Why don’t you shut up?

President Bush,

Why don’t you shut up? In your statement on Monday regarding the legitimate actions of the Russian Federation in Georgia, you failed to mention once the war crimes perpetrated by Georgian military forces, which American advisors support, against Russian and Ossetian civilians. Kinda embarrassing, eh?

President Bush,

Why don’t you shut up? Your faithful ally, Mikhail Saakashvili, was announcing a ceasefire deal while his troops, with your advisors, were massing on Ossetia’s border, which they crossed under cover of night and destroyed Tskhinvali, targeting civilian structures just like your forces did in Iraq. Kinda humanitarian, eh?

President Bush,

Why don’t you shut up? The military forces of your faithful ally, Georgia, supported by American advisors, while on a mission as peacekeepers in Ossetia, were ordered to open fire on Russian peacekeeping forces in the same team. Kinda noble, eh?

President Bush,

Why don’t you shut up? Your American transport aircraft gave a ride home to thousands of Georgian soldiers from Iraq directly into the combat zone. Did your boys wish them good luck as they stepped off the aircraft? I can almost hear it, “Give ‘em Hell!” Kinda friendly, eh?

President Bush,

Why don’t you shut up? How do you account for the fact that among the Georgian soldiers fleeing the fighting yesterday you could clearly hear officers using American English giving orders to “Get back inside” and how do you account for the fact that there are reports of American soldiers among the Georgian casualties? Kinda odd, eh?

President Bush,

Why don’t you shut up? Do you really think anyone gives any importance whatsoever to your words after 8 years of your criminal and murderous regime and policies? Do you really believe you have any moral ground whatsoever and do you really imagine there is a single human being anywhere on this planet who does not stick up his middle finger every time you appear on a TV screen? Kinda makes ya’ll think, eh?

Do you really believe you have the right to give any opinion or advice after Abu Ghraib? After Guantanamo? After the massacre of hundreds of thousands of Iraqi citizens? After the torture by CIA operatives? Kinda difficult, eh? Do you really believe you have any right to make a statement on any point of international law after your trumped-up charges against Iraq and the subsequent criminal invasion? Like spittin’ into the wind, right?

President Bush,

Why don’t you shut up? Suppose Russia for instance declares that Georgia has weapons of mass destruction? And that Russia knows where these WMD are, namely in Tblisi and Poti and north, south, east and west of there? And that it must be true because there is “magnificent foreign intelligence” such as satellite photos of milk powder factories and baby cereals producing chemical weapons and which are currently being “driven around the country in vehicles”? Suppose Russia declares for instance that “Saakashvili stiffed the world” and it is “time for regime change”?

Nice and simple, isn’t it, President Bush?

So, why don’t you shut up? Oh and by the way, send some more of your military advisors to Georgia, they are doing a sterling job. And they look all funny down the night sight, all green. Hahaha!

Thank you, That would be all.

Timothy BANCROFT-HINCHEY

PRAVDA.Ru

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Thursday, August 14, 2008

Redwoods Mural

A few months back I was able to finally start on another Silverado Middle School mural -- Hard to believe the last one was six years ago.

I was contacted about it last year, but after I said I'd like to do it somehow it took a year for the folks at the school to get back to me. I'd hoped to get it done before Christmas, but as it was I didn't get started until March.

This is what the wall looked like:

The request was for a mural showing 1) a redwood forest, 2) snow covered mountains, and 3) a creek. Ok. I cobbled together some old photos I'd taken in the Yosemite and in Sequoia National Park. I didn't have a suitable snow covered mountain, but I did find one in an ad in the AAA magazine. Looked like it might work.

the prototype mural plan

First I cleaned off the wall. It had been recently painted, but already had a few glops of stuff on it.

At about this point I realized that the wall around the corner to the right was quite blank and the mural might be extended around the corner. Interesting idea. I asked the principal if this would be ok. Sure, he said. I re-cobbled the plan:

The wall around the corner is much taller than the original wall, which is under a canopy. This gave me an excuse to show redwood trees being not just wide but also tall.

Here are a few work photos.



Creek being painted.


These folk are coming down the path on the streetside mural.


Here's the finished version of the original mural wall.



This shows how the mural wraps around the corner.
(It was about 3/4 finished at the time.)



Nearing the end, I spent a day designing and lettering a sign
showing a quote from a student's father which the
administration felt was appropriate to put on the mural.

This is the part of the wall around the corner, actually the street side of the building.


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Haaretz: the Georgia/Russia/Israeli story

This is a most enlightening article (culled from the list on Madsen's website.)

Here are a few intriguing paragraphs:
Last update - 13:15 14/08/2008

Georgia president denies Israel halted military aid due to war
By Anshel Pfeffer, Haaretz Correspondent

Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili denied on Wednesday night that Israel has suspended its military aid to the country. "I haven't heard anything about that, and I haven't had time to think about that issue for some days," he told Haaretz.


Saakashvili said he is aware of problems with supplying the pilotless drones that his army ordered from Israeli companies, but not of the stopping of any other shipments of military aid.


"The Israeli weapons have proved very effective," he said at a press conference at his office. When asked whether the Israeli arms played a role in the military successes he claimed the Georgian army had achieved, he joked: "Are you asking me as a representative of Elbit or of Israel Aerospace Industries?"


To a reporter's question about Jews who have fled the fighting and come to Israel, he said: "We have two Israeli cabinet ministers, one deals with war [Defense Minister David Kezerashvili], and the other with negotiations [State Minister for Territorial Integration Temur Yakobashvili], and that is the Israeli involvement here: Both war and peace are in the hands of Israeli Jews."


Yakobashvili is actually not an Israeli citizen. Saakashvili's statements are part of his government's attempt to bring other countries into its war against Russia. During the briefing, Saakashvili noted that he is in constant contact with U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. He promised that U.S. warships would be docking in Georgian ports within a few days to make sure they remain open.

[. . .]

Yakobashvili claimed the Georgian forces had destroyed Russia's 58th army and downed 17 planes and three helicopters (data unsubstantiated by other sources). Eventually they had to retreat, he said, because "Russia deployed 30,000 soldiers and a thousand tanks. Our people are not suicidal � we don't want our soldiers to remain in the field and be killed by Russian planes."


The minister claimed that the Abkhazian minority had carried out "ethnic cleansing" in that breakaway region in recent years by expelling members of other ethnic groups, and had supplied weapons to separatists in Ossetia for attacks on Georgian villages.


He was in Tskhinvali, Ossetia, last week, hours before fighting broke out there. "The separatists fired at Georgian villages. We returned fire and asked the Russians to order the Ossetians to stop. The Russian representative told me we have to agree to a total cease-fire and that President Saakashvili had issued such an order to our army, and we
did not return fire, even when they bombarded two of our villages. I told the president we should pay the price, just let there be peace. But when we found out that they were
continuing to transfer more weapons through the Roki Tunnel [between Russia and Ossetia], we had to attack. It was a matter of screwing or being screwed."


Despite the Russian army's advance toward Tbilisi on Wednesday, Yakobashvili said he believes the cease-fire reached through French mediation will hold.


I enboldened that line about a total cease fire because I'd read earlier (in an excellent article in the Independent) that that very Russian demand at the UN was what caused the US and Britain to block any Security Council talks. Here's the end of that article:

At the request of Russia, the U.N. Security Council held an emergency session in New York but failed to reach consensus early Friday on a Russian-drafted statement.

The council concluded it was at a stalemate after the US, Britain and some other members backed the Georgians in rejecting a phrase in the three-sentence draft statement that would have required both sides "to renounce the use of force," council diplomats said.

The Georgian attack came just hours after Saakashvili announced a unilateral cease-fire in a television broadcast late Thursday in which he also urged South Ossetian separatist leaders to enter talks on resolving the conflict.

Georgian officials later blamed South Ossetian separatists for thwarting the cease-fire by shelling Georgian villages in the area.

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Tuesday, August 12, 2008

I'm back—2008 Perseid report

August 12, 2008, 4:15am: Fog encroaches on Perseus.



I'm returning to the world of blogging with the story of my Perseid observations this morning.

Hoping for clear skies, I went out about 2:45am. I took my fairly new Lumix FZ18 camera along and took periodic 60 second exposures of random sky areas. None managed to capture any meteor trails.

The weather was clear, technically, in that there were no clouds, but the air itself was quite hazy—not nearly as crystal clear as it had been within the last day or two. The milky way, quite visible nearly under a nearby streetlight just a couple of days ago, was quite invisible, as were any stars fainter than about magnitude 3. But the temperature was in the comfortable mid-50s, so I stayed out, despite the dearth of meteors.

Then about 3:15 I saw four bright Perseids within about three minutes. Cool. Then a non-Perseid, equally bright, coming from somewhere around the zenith, arcing through Pegasus. That turned out to be the flurry of the night—five meteors in about five minutes.

The next hour or so I took photos, looked at the patches of sky visible between trees (actually quite a fair amount of the sky, in all) and watched the fog gradually appear, forming in the west and working it's way across the sky. In that hour I saw perhaps four more meteors, two of them bright. The temperature seemed to dip into the 50s. It was time to go back to bed.

Here's a guy who had even worse luck than me - one Perseid in a 2.5 hour exposure photo.

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