Saturday, August 30, 2008

Hurricane Gustav update rom the Oil Drum

Hurricane Gustav, Energy Infrastructure, and Updated Damage Models - Thread #3 (updated 23:46 edt)

Recent track shifts have Gustav consistently hitting near New Orleans, east of the majority of oil and gas rigs; though this could still change in either direction, the models have continued to converge.

There are many resources under the fold (by clicking "there's more" in this post), including details of the latest oil/infra damage estimates from Chuck Watson at KAC/UCF as well as lot of other resources including rig maps, models, google earth maps, and a lot more in the comments. Please help us find things that help convey the energy situation and problems created by this storm. Client-type readers should click on Chuck Watson's links - his long range Katrina forecasts were spot on and he has helped us -a website of volunteers - by volunteering a great deal of time and expertise.

UPDATE! 21:46 EST From Chuck Watson with respect to the LOOP:

Extensive damage and an extended recovery time probably measured in months. The pipelines to shore are probably in a lot of trouble on this trajectory due to scour.

Comment from Matthew Simmons 23:43 8/30:

LOOP is the only facility in the Gulf to unload VLCC tankers which carry over 2 million barrels of crude. They can in theory be "litered" by unloading onto smaller tankers that can make it into the Gulf Coast ports but this is very lenghty timing and the spare capacity of these smaller tankers is slim. We get about 1.2 million b/d of crude imports through Loop. (+/- 10%)

UPDATE: 21:00 EST - Graphic below - shut-in production estimates below fold

Sneak preview of the 11pm runs. This is from LBAR, which has been almost as good as GFDL on track (at 48 hrs, 156mi vs 136mi), and updates much faster.

Damage estimates using LBAR 48 hour run 9pm EST-click twice to enlarge

For all graphics: Rigs/Platforms: Blue: evacuated only; Yellow will require inspection before restart; Red: damage requiring repair.

Refineries: Black: operational impact (partial shutdown) Green: Operational impact (full shutdown)
Red: Damage likely

Ports: standard hurricane flags for wind

We hope those in the path of this behemoth will get out of the way, prepare, and do everything they can to preserve human life. Let's hope this is all a waste of time and that this is not the human tragedy that it looks to be.

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