Sunday, February 24, 2008

Like the US, other oil producing countries are finding their own needs are reducing their ability to export oil

Case in point: Indonesia

The Oil Drum:

TOD has featured the Export Land Model (ELM) on several occasions ( ). A summary can also be found in Wikipedia.

The concept is deceptively simple:
Oil producing countries service internal markets first, and then export their surplus. Observations of oil exporting countries show that their internal markets continue to grow rapidly even after the peak. So their exports are hit by 2 factors - declining production and increasing domestic consumption. As a result, their export capacity drops with unexpected rapidity.

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